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About numdog
Actuarial production for the signed opinion.
numdog builds the production system behind the signed reserve opinion for small-to-mid P&C carriers and captives.
The exceptions are dated before the triangle moves, so our review starts from facts instead of a hunt through tabs.
[ Carriers & captives ]
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About numdog
We help chief actuaries produce signed reserve opinions for carriers and captives.
numdog was built for the close calendar. Chief actuaries and reserving leads at small-to-mid US P&C carriers, and risk managers at captives and RRGs, still stitch triangles, methods, and memos across spreadsheets. Existing tools were either too thin for a signed opinion or too heavy for a mid-size desk.
So we built numdog: an actuarial production system that extracts policy and claims data, reconciles exceptions, runs methods side by side, and drafts the memo for a credentialed actuary to select and sign.
Stated reasons
100%
Selected ultimates carry a stated reason in the file.
Methods compared
5
Reserving methods compared before the actuary picks.
Records, one audit trail
4
Exceptions, memo, roll forward, and Schedule P in one audit trail.
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the work
Principles that drive everything we build at numdog.
The selection
Every workflow is built so a credentialed actuary can select and sign, with a dated exception log and a stated reason next to every ultimate.
The defense
The inputs, the competing methods, and the diagnostics sit next to the choice.
The disclosure
Data review is documented as it happens, because the report has to disclose it.
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our story
From a desk-side gap in 2020 to the production system behind the signed opinion.
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Our Team
numdog
Jordan Hale
Founding Actuary
Sarah Mitchell
Head of Actuarial Product
Daniel Oren
Product Lead
Lucas Bennett
Carrier Success
Questions?
We’re glad you asked.
What does numdog produce that a spreadsheet cannot?
Selections with a stated reason, ranges with arithmetic behind them, a quarterly roll forward while the quarter is still open, an audit file that documents every run, and objection responses drafted from the same file.
Does the actuary still select and sign?
Yes. numdog proposes. A credentialed actuary reviews the file, makes the selections, and signs. The system does not replace professional judgment.
What methods does Reserve Review run?
Chain ladder, Bornhuetter Ferguson, Cape Cod, frequency severity, and Berquist Sherman, side by side, with weights and a stated reason next to the selected ultimate.
Who is numdog built for?
Chief actuaries and reserving leads at small-to-mid US P&C carriers, and risk managers at captives and RRGs who need a signed reserve opinion.
How does Schedule P tie in?
Schedule P Part 1 ties to the filed statement with a dated exception log, so the scramble at filing time has a paper trail.
Where does the data come from?
Straight from your policy and claims tables. Every triangle field traces back to the record it came from.
What happens when a claim does not fit the triangle?
It becomes a dated ASOP 23 exception. Blocking items, like a missing accident date, stay out of the triangle until someone resolves them.
How are the ranges produced?
Mack and bootstrap ODP run on the same reconciled triangle, so the adverse deviation disclosure has arithmetic behind it.
What is the quarterly roll forward?
Expected emergence against actual, by segment, explained while the quarter is still open.
Does numdog cover pricing?
The Filing license adds on level premium, trend selection, GLM class plan support, the SERFF package, and drafted objection responses.
Is implementation included?
Yes. Implementation is included in every annual license at no extra cost, from data mapping through the first production run.
We are a captive with no actuary on staff. Does this work?
Yes. Triangle is built for captives and risk retention groups. Your consulting actuary directs the file and signs the opinion.
What goes in the audit file?
The model inventory, data lineage, and reproducible runs, so a regulator or auditor can see how each number was produced.
Can we cancel?
Licenses are annual. You can cancel at any time and it takes effect at the end of the paid period.
How do we reach support?
Email support@numdog.com. Licensing and product questions are answered from that inbox.
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get in touch
Get account updates by text
Notices when a run finishes, when a selection is waiting, and when a report is ready to sign.
Carriers closing on numdog