Waiting until close to see expected versus actual wastes the only window you had to correct course.

A roll forward compares prior selected ultimates to current emergence. Paid and incurred movements show up while the quarter can still be influenced.

numdog computes that view from the same reconciled triangles used for the selection, not from a separate workbook.

What to watch mid-quarter

First, emergence against the prior selected ultimate by accident year.

Second, whether immature years are still riding a priori assumptions that no longer hold.

Third, whether new exceptions appeared after the last reconciliation. Checklist:

• Prior ultimate by AY
• Actual paid and incurred to date
• Expected emergence for the open period
• Variance with a short note
• Open exceptions added since last close
• Candidate reweights for the next selection

Keep the signing actuary in the loop early. A surprise at close is usually a process failure, not a method failure.

Carry the variances into the next memo draft automatically so the narrative matches the numbers.

The useful roll forward is the one you run before the meeting, not after the filing.

That is how the production system earns its place on the close calendar.

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